International Journal of Emerging Research in Engineering, Science, and Management
Vol. 5, Issue 3, pp. 1-13, Jul-Sep 2026.
https://doi.org/10.58482/ijeresm.v5i3.1

Received: 03 Mar 2026 | Revised: 08 May 2026 | Accepted: 16 Jun 2026 | Published: 19 Jul 2026

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Reliability Analysis of a Three-Unit Gas Lift System: A Comparative Study of Markov and Random Forest Models

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1S Z Taj

1S M Rizwan

2Mohamed Al Ismaili

1Department of Applied Mathematics & Science, College of Engineering, National University of Science & Technology, Muscat, Oman.

2Hydrocarbon Finder E&P SAOC, Muscat, Oman.

Abstract: Gas lift is extensively used in the oil & gas industry to draw oil/gas from old wells. It comprises a compressor driven by an engine. This paper presents reliability analysis of a system consisting of three gas lifts operating in parallel. Reliability parameters such as availability of the system, busy period of the maintenance team, expected number of maintenance activities, and system profitability are estimated using real industrial maintenance data collected from the three-unit gas lift system. The dataset covers an observation period of four years during which 582 events of failure, inspections, and repairs were documented. The failures are classified into compressor and engine failures for each gas lift, enabling component-level parameter estimation. The data are used to develop a Markov model which is analyzed using regenerative processes. A detailed sensitivity analysis is also carried out to measure the effect of different parameters on the profitability of the system. Finally, a comparative analysis between the results of Markov model and Random Forest model is presented.

Keywords: Gas lift, Markov processes, Reliability, Sensitivity, Random Forest, Regenerative processes.

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